Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. in the late morning and afternoon. Surf Reports & Forecasts Australia Queensland Gold Coast Sunshine Coast Bargara Fraser Island North Stradbroke Island Agnes Water Yeppoon Muralug Island THU South Orange County's best summertime breaks were chest high on the sets and lined up and real clean with good form. N wind 10 to 15 ktbacking to NW 5 kt late in the Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 3N and above over the entire North Pacific. : See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page). Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. This day is looking like the lightest afternoon all week, so another session later in the day isnt a bad call. Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/29) 5 day average winds were moderate from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. W 5 ft. FRI Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts and lifting north with seas 31 ft at 45N 176W aimed east. Swell fading Wed AM (5/3) from 3.2 ft @ 13 secs (4.0 ft). Surface Analysis Surf along south facing shores will ease today as a south swell that recently peaked moves out. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. Then had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022. Swell from it is poised for Hawaii. CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies. Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/29) The latest images depict a strong warm signal along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador and rebuilding compared to weeks past with a tongue extending west over the Galapagos continuing along the equator reaching to 138W (results of Kelvin Wave #1). Swell W 5 to Weather Outlook: Wind waves 2 ft or less. waves 3 ft in the eveningbecoming 2 ft or less. Friday should then revert with AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph. Temps to rise steadily from here forward to +0.711 degs in May rising to +1.149 in July and up to +1.269 degrees in Oct then fading from there. Swell W 5 to 6 ft. FRI This swell should linger in the chest max range Wednesday the 3rd, decreasing later in the day. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. Chevrerie and Cow La Petite Brosse. Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead). Surface Analysis Surface Analysis DeepSwell offers free surf reports and long-range forecasts including swell, tide, wind and weather reports updated multiple times daily. Select from the other forecast maps (on the right) to view the temperature, cloud cover, wind and precipitation for this country on a large scale with animation. Thermal inversion will be absent thanks to the incoming cold air, but the onshore flow and moisture being drawn into SoCal will keep May Gray in place. Beyond 72 hours the models are teasing about a tiny gale developing on Sun AM (2/27) in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska with 40 kt west winds over a small area and 29 ft seas at 41.5N 147W aimed east. On Wed AM (3/2) a broader gale is to be developing just west of the dateline with 45-50 kt west winds and seas building from 27 ft at 42N 164.5E aimed east. Forecast (4/30) - Temps are slowly climbing above neutral (0.2 degs today) and are forecast rising to +1.49 degs in July and +2.35 degs in Nov and solidly into El Nino territory. Chance of showers. WED See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view. Warm temps continued west from there on the equator across the dateline and beyond. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs above the La Nina threshold on 2/12. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. Hawaii's North Shore had sets at waist to chest high on the sets and clean and lined up but inconsistent and weak. But, remnants of La Nina are evident along the California and Baja coast with cold temps and the normal La Nina enhanced Springtime upwelling pattern in control. Over the next 72 hours swell from two weather systems are to be in play (see Kuril Island Gale and Gulf Gale below). Satellite Imagery Although this particular swell will fade Saturday the 6th, southern hemi will give south facing spots their turn on the Pacific's wave machine. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was rising slightly at +2.41 and has not been negative (yet) in a long time, after peaking at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. Your heart knows the way. In the evening 45 kts west winds were pushing east with seas building to 30 ft over a tiny area at 45.5N 157E aimed east and a long ways from Hawaii. Summer - up to waist high swell. NW wind 5 ktveering to E after midnight. Get notified when this report is updated. Waikiki long range surf forecast for swell, wind, tide and weather conditions updated multiple times daily. 24. Sea Level Anomalies: (2/17) Sea heights were neutral over the Equatorial Pacific except one small area of -5 cms anomalies between 95W to 85W and losing coverage quickly. See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view. The longterm trend has been steadily downward. NDBC Monday the 8th, so far, looks about waist high at most spots with occasional chest high pluses at south facing breaks. Swell and SW 1 ft in the afternoon. WED NIGHT As for totals, there's a wide spread on the models and spotty amounts to boot. Just a minor mix of south swell and NW windswell expected. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. But it will be too little too late. Still, neither of these forecasts seems realistic (see IRI Consensus forecast below). 117-128 m (384-420 ft) Website. Please enable JavaScript to access the following map views: All map types that you can enable here: Pacific-Ocean Colour Base Map, Wave Height, Wave Energy, Pacific-Ocean Swell 1 Energy, Swell 2 Energy, Windwave Energy, Pacific-Ocean Precipitation, Wind, Temperature, Pacific-Ocean Cloud Cover. Control the animation using the slide bar found beneath the weather map. Coastal waters from Florence Oregon to Point St. George California St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm Steve Shearer (freeride76) Monday, 01 May 2023. Stennis Space Center, MS, 39529 Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/24) Today's temps were up some at -1.367 after rising to -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. CFSv2 Uncorrected Data At a glance: My call is for 0.5" along much of the SB coast with some higher pockets; VC and LA coasts would run 0.25-0.5"; and OC and SD coasts should top out around 0.25". Most south facing spots were running waist to chest high. You can customize the wave and wind maps with overlays for wind arrows, pressure and general weather for surfing. Lows 63 to 69. Belong anywhere with Airbnb. Still some fun sized surf out there as that south swell eases and hangs in there, and more short-period NW swell shows. Swell Direction: 192 degrees, North CA: Dribbles on Mon (5/1) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). but the storm's extra-long tail ensures there's a long run of swell. sgi_tile=1; TUE TUE NIGHT Today's temps are rising again at +2.478 after dropping to +2.145 (4/25) having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) Sunday, April 30, 2023 Swell fading Tues (5/9) from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). TUE The 24 deg isotherm was easing east to 95W. East winds up to 15 mph . There no sign of La Nina on the oceans surface and everything is now looking like El Nino. Beyond 72 hours the jet is to hold consolidated still reaching to 135W on Mon (2/28) while slowly weakening with winds down to 150 kts over the area from Japan to a point north of Hawaii but with something that looks like a weak trough developing over the Central Gulf of Alaska and another over the dateline, but weak is the operative word. Swell holding overnight then starting to fade first light Sat (2/26) from 6.6 ft @ 16 secs (10.5 ft). Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/30) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). But we also have some very late season WNW groundswell mixing in during the same timeframe, and wintertime spots could get pretty fun. Long Range Forecast Mostly the same story as of late. WED W swell 2 ft at 12 seconds. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high and lined up and clean with decent form but pretty soft. Symbols shown on the map: Global-Pacific Surf Breaks, Tide Forecasts, Cities, Global-Pacific Ski Resorts, Live Wave Buoys, Live Webcams, Global-Pacific Wind Now, Temperature Now, Weather Now, Global-Pacific Swell at breaks, Rating at breaks. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date. NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131, Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ, Pieces Featuring Stormsurf: Swell is tracking towards Hawaii. Warming was occurring off of Peru out to 130W. On Tues AM southwest winds to be lifting northeast at 30-35 kts over a solid area with seas 21 ft at 55S 154W aimed northeast. Wind waves 2 ft or less becoming 3 ft in Still lots of swell over the weekend, but morning conditions are trending less favorably. But deep cool waters were along the immediate coast of Peru. Chance 100% advert-free browsing experience on any device, Unlimited advert-free HD webcam streaming, Long-range forecast experience without interuptions. The south swell will slowly ease Sunday the 8th and into the workweek. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. In the afternoon light winds are forecast for North CA with northwest winds building to 10-15 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/23 indicates a huge very warm stream of 3+ degs anomalies extending from the far West Pacific east to 100W (leading edge of Kelvin Wave #2) and then upwards from there over the far East Pacific with +4 degs anomalies from Kelvin Wave #1 erupting there into Ecuador. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. SYNOPSIS FOR THE SOUTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS. WED NIGHT sgi_ord=Math.random()*10000000000000000; Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. A broad gale started building over and just east of the Kuril Islands and North Japan on Sun PM (2/20) generating a fetch of 45 kt west winds with seas building from 27 ft at 39.75N 150E aimed east. waves 3 to 4 ft in the eveningbecoming 2 ft or less. Down south a small gale developed east of New Zealand pushing northeast Thurs-Sat (4/29) producing up to 37 ft seas aimed well north. Still some fun pulses to look forward to in the coming weeks for the South Pacific though. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like'). webmaster.ndbc@noaa.gov, Disclaimer The classic La Nina pattern is in quick retreat. There are also options to display live wind observations from ships, wave buoys and weather stations on the wave maps in the Global-Pacific region. You can customize the wave and wind maps with overlays for wind arrows, pressure and general weather for surfing. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). On Sat AM (4/29) northwest winds were 30 kts just west of the dateline with seas 23 ft at 39.75N 172.75E aimed southeast. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations). Language links are at the top of the page across from the title. A gale started developing east of New Zealand on Thurs AM (4/27) with 35-40+ kt south winds and seas 30 ft at 48S 166.25W aimed northeast. The South Shore had sets at waist high and lined up and clean with decent form. Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. NOAA declared La Nina dead. 13 Feb 2023 - Rent from people in Sceaux-du-Gtinais, France from 17/night. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. Swell Here's the sat-shot from above to save you from scrolling (image from NOAA GOES): This will bring a period of cool, showery weather Monday the 1st through Thursday the 4th, with most of the precip likely Wednesday night into Thursday. A small pocket of cooling was indicated over the Galapagos. Friday the 6th as a combo of both Southern Hemi and WNW groundswell build to a peak. KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E) There could be a few peaks to track down, but again the winds dont look great. This will result in more peaks to be had throughout the forecast, with size a few notches smaller than what were expected to see over the weekend. Models are still diverged, possible morning window, but at this time conditions look mostly unfavorable. waves 2 ft or less. Something to monitor. La Nina Evaporating - Kelvin Wave Still Pushing East The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled. After that two weak gales are forecast in the Central Gulf Sun-Tues (3/1) producing 26 and 29 ft seas respectively targeting from Pt Conception northward. Wind waves 7 to 8 ftsubsiding to 5 to 7 ft in the Swell W 5 to WED NIGHT Control the animation using the slide bar found beneath the weather map. But weaker residual cool waters were still covering a large area from Peru up to the equator and west to 140W and weaker to the dateline. http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. South Central Pacific Gale Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. the week. That Wed-PM/Thu-AM rainband looks the heaviest with rain lasting a good part of the day Thursday, clearing Friday. The east equatorial Pacific is finally and steadily warming. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. On Thurs AM (4/20) south winds were fading from 30+ kts moving to the Southeast Pacific with seas fading from 29 ft at 52.75S 139.5W aimed northeast. WED 2 ft or less. Easing swells this week. Hourly Multiple Swells Wind Highlighting Model. http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/. About Us Water temperatures are a warm 25 to 27C or 77 to 81F year-round. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. TUE NIGHT On Thurs AM (5/4) southwest winds to be fading from 35-40 kts with seas 26 ft at 40S 132W aimed northeast. Chance of showers. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. Swell continues Thurs (5/4) at 2.6 ft @ 15 secs early (4.0 ft). N wind 5 to 10 kt. Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East, CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link. Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead). Rain. All content remains copyright of Wavetrak Limited unless stated otherwise, we'd kindly ask that you don't reproduce it in any form without our permission. Check in on the forecast update: Southwest Pacific . 48. Brookings southward, NW wind 10 to 15 kteasing to 5 to 10 kt